**ES leading Higher, TF Struggling** Futures Weekly Review and What's Ahead

Hi everyone,  I hope its looking like Spring or maybe a little of Summer in your neck of the woods.
Its been awhile since I've offered my take of where I see we are going in the markets--- so lets dive in for a quick review today!

ES-- S&P 500

After an amazing move on Friday with the NFP jobs report coming out better than expected --We saw a big rally higher, The dow well up over 200 points, emini S&P 500 around 27 points and trucking higher.  Ya it was a great day to be long!

I believe we still may have some room to go higher but I think we could pull back to the mean and sell off some if we can stay below the 21ema and shows some follow through.  Today though,  the market looks to push higher with a bounce but probable run out of steam and move much lower as we are extended and should see some reverting to the mean,


GC-  Gold

I do like Gold a little higher from here, hopefully we can get to push up to the $1191.40 target level, test those highes and regain some strength back down as we get back into our nice trend line moving much lower.


DX-  US Dollar

We've seen allot of weakness in the dollar lately going lower, just ranging around trying to figure out where she is headed.  I believe we will still see a much higher dollar over the year that's why I've been saying stay long the dollar but from here I would look at $95.68 as our next target to push higher.


CL-  Crude

Well lots of volatility in crude,  I know all the news and anaylists are saying we've made a bottom and are going higher for sure...  Yes we may go higher but I've been selling this area off the $60.59 Fire Line to push lower.  We have gone lower as you can see but I see Crude to retrace some back into the $53.00 level before it settles some and consolidates to build new energies higher or lower.
There's lots going on with crude, not to mention the german bund as we saw a massive selloff and some capitulation as some liquidity was drying up and fund managers were getting killed.  Be watching the bunds, bonds, and the notes as we more than likely will see more downside after this hiccup higher soon and then lower as she goes.  Typically,  if bonds are going lower interest rates should go higher so this would be something to watch for if your thinking of getting a new mortgage.


Have a great week trading and watching the markets,  be safe out there.  Always limit and manage your risk!

-david

**ES to head lower, Crude getting Crushed**-- Futures Weekly Review and What's Ahead

Hi Friends,   Its been awhile since I've done a blog post but hey lots is going on in the markets and I thought it was time to chime in and mention a few things about to happen. Let's dive in...


ES-

Looking at the daily chart we are now in this descending channel pattern and unless we see some serious bulls come into play we are headed lower.  We are now below the 8 and 21 ema and its a solid sell signal to load up and go short.  I fully expect lots of volatility this next week
with the FED speaking Wed at this next FMOC meeting.

ZB-

Now that we've sold off pretty hard and flushed out most of the longs, look for the 30 year bond to start working its way higher, targets I like are around the 162'08 level. We should see mortgage rates get back to going lower as we make our way back higher in the notes and bonds.

GC-

Gold should head lower and test the 1141 level.   Probable hang around for a bit, should bounce some from there before it continues pushing through and making lower lows...

DX-

The Dollar is shocking the world and blowing through shorts making lots of folks rich, while the euro is getting killed... I hope you're one of them if you were listening back in December 2014 when I said the trade of the year will be the dollar going higher,  much higher for most of the year.  I hope you're in this one as now the next target will be up to the Voodoo fireline @101.95

CL-

Wow,  crude takes a dive losing 4% this past Friday, and like I've said its going lower folks.  I don't care what media your listening to that says different.  Look for a target of $41.15.  Gas should start to come down some and stay down as we make lower lows and push beyond this $45.00 level that we closed around on Friday.  Enjoy it while it last if your going to do a road trip or do some traveling.

Have a great week----- and---- happy trading!

-david

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**Indexes Could Go Up, Could Go Down-- Bonds Higher--Crude Taking a Bath**- Futures Weekly Review and What's Ahead

Hi Everyone,   I hope your having a nice weekend with your family and friends.  Lots has been going on, and with more ahead.. Lets jump into the charts and have a look..

ES- emini S& P 500-

Well we had a great rally after the ECB announcement this past Thursday, markets were sideways all day on Friday but if you look at the chart below we still are in a weekly up trend but there are mixed signals on the daily chart.

We have had 3 closes below the 21 ema which technically puts us in a downtrend, now I don't know for sure if we'll stay here but also with this symmetrical wedge that has been setting up, the market is coiling to explode either way.  If we do go lower things could get pretty ugly to the downside,  if we break higher, and push through the highs expect to grind higher and continue this long term trend but don't always bank that will happen here.

ZB- 30 yr bond.  

 This trade has been a great trade, now that we've pulled back to the 21 ema I would be another buyer and look to keep rolling higher and interest rates to head lower.

DX- US Dollar.

I hope you've noticed that while the euro and other currencies have gotten hammered the Dollar keeps going Higher, much Higher.  And we still have lots to go, this is a great long term swing trade to be holding onto.

GC- Gold.

If you remember this last update I said Gold very well may take a bounce and boy did we get it,  Really what we are seeing is more of a flight to quality or a hedge if you will to this massive sell off in Crude.  I would expect as more downside continues in Crude to see Gold head up to around the $1330 level before bouncing off this level and going lower. I'm still believing we see Gold much lower but as folks are loosing their shirts with Crude, people are trying to hedge their bets and be safe.

CL- Crude

We are still going lower folks regardless of what BS you've heard or not heard in the media, I'm still looking as a target around the $41 level.  There has been no end to OPEC cutting back, and places like Texas will continue to cap wells and lay off more people as its just too expensive to pull oil out of the ground, and better to wait to see prices return higher.

6S- Swiss Franc.

If you saw this on the 15th, or maybe you saw the media covering it with the Swiss Bank unpegging themselves from there 3 year agreement to the Euro and the Franc taking off over 20% higher. Well what some people don't realize is there were massive margin calls and folks waking up to there little 10 contracts short the Franc to $200,000 in the hole. I saw even large brokers like FXCM who does over 5 billion, (yes that 5 BILLION BUCKS) in trade volume a month get hammered overnite and have to borrow capital to the tune of around $350 million to cover loses from retail investors getting killed with this move.  So be careful out there folks, have stop loses, manage your trades and be smart!

have a great trading week,

-david

**Looking Bearish on Indices, Crude still pulling us down** Futures Weekly Review and What's Ahead

Hi everyone,   I hope you're having a good 2015 so far, the markets have been very volatile lately.  Let's dive into some charts:

ZB--30yr Bond; still moving higher,  what a great trade if you've been hanging on to this one.  I would still be a buyer back to the 21 ema and look to see this baby moving higher...

ES- S&P 500 emini;
Bears look to fight this one out pretty hard, I would really look for whatever way this one breaks out of this wedge.  Its anyone's call this week to see but I believe we could see much more downside if we can break lower...

DX- US Dollar;
Keeps on trending higher, this is one to hold onto at least for the rest of this year but maybe for the next 2 to 3 years possible.  As more pressure is placed on Russia, and the price of crude to be manipulated lower- look to see the Dollar staying strong and going higher!

GC-Gold:

I like Gold a little higher as its breaking out of this channel but then getting rejecting again from this tree line and heading lower,  Gold will go much lower but may take a little break and make some small gains

CL- Crude:   Look to see this train still going lower, allot of folks can't believe it but it is. Until all the buyers get flushed out, and margin called out then we can make a bottom on CL and go higher but there's still plenty buying and I look for a target @ $41.56. Places like Texas will continue to get hit hard with possible a recession, capping wells and laying thousands off as its smarter to leave the oil in the ground and wait for prices to come back. This will continue to have huge implications around the world especially with countries like putting a squeeze on Russia...  With crude about bankrupting their country and loosing half the value of their currency in a week--- Pray we don't push them into a corner and start another 'cold war'!

That's it for now...

Have a great trading week, set targets, take profits and don't be greedy!

-david