"Major Volatility with Bulls Pushing Market Higher"-- Futures Weekly Review and What's Ahead

Well what a crazy week where we are down with Ebola, up with the Fed, and all over the map with huge moves up and down.  I hope its been a good week for you trading. Lets jump into the charts and have a look at what's going on and what's to come.

The emini S&P 500 had a great day today up around 14.5 pts, emini Dow up around 131 pts with bulls really coming in strong!  Today was really a line in the sand day to see if this rally is for real or we where going to roll over and die.  Like I said we saw the 10% correction but I was really hoping to see a 20% correction.  The Put/Call ratio was over 1 showing more puts or people selling to indicate the inverse that the market looked to go higher and sure enough that's what we got.  So I think we will see more hiccups with Ebola outbreak in New York and more downside but I was wrong about seeing more downside with the Bulls winning this out and continuing a 3 year rally to go higher.  You can see from the daily chart below we where right at the 50 day moving average, as well as the 61.8 retracement -- so this was really a do or die kind of day to see who was going to win.

ZB 30yr bond has been a great trade to the upside and with this current pullback to the 21 ema I would say this ride looks to continue higher and the buck the inversely correlated trend with the indices to keep moving up.  We will see for sure but it looks real strong to move up and test some of the crazy highs we've seen, which will be good targets to take some profits.  Its nice though as bonds move up typically interest rates move down and this helps the economy specifically housing with mortgage rates going down.  Not to mention Crude pushing through the $80 level has been huge for the drop in gasoline prices and looks to head lower. Here's the 30yr bond below:

Here's Gold GC chart,  I would look for more downside with support coming in at the 1218 level, probably bounce some but if we can push through I would expect to test the lows of around 1191.

Markets are very volatile out there so be careful, take profits and get out. **Heads Up for Wed, 29th as FOMC Statement** from the Fed will be out at 2pm EST.

Have a great weekend everyone!

-david

**Markets Continue to Sell Off**-- Futures Weekly Review and What's Ahead

Hi everyone,   well what a week!

If you recall my last post I said to be careful in the indexes as things may get pretty ugly to the downside.  And with our FOMC Pop higher on Wednesday and massive over 330pts in Dow sell off Thursday and another 30+ plus points down in the S & P 500 today and leading NQ over 100pts lower--  we are definitely seeing the move down.  Its typical to see selling into next friday, Oct 17th Options Expiration but I still believe we are going to see at least a 10% correction possible more! So even though we've been in a Bull market for the last three years it looks like we a forming a head and shoulders pattern, probably will get some bounce after expiration to form the right shoulder a little more and down we go.   And yes with this Trend change the Russel has been leading it and with today the Nasdaq leading with strong selling.  and here's the emini S & P 500 from todays move 31 pts down for the day!

ZBZ4 30 yr bond has been just trucking along higher with the correlations looking strong to go higher if  your still in this trade like I talked about.  Next target will be about a full point, almost 32 ticks from here to the 142'08 level.

GCZ4 Gold contract has been bouncing nicely off this support level around $1190ish level,  I would expect more money into gold too as a hedge with the markets being volatile and should see gold continue moving higher to possible around the $1245ish area before it will crap out and start heading much lower and be on its continued journey to around the $1000 level.

There has also been a flight to quality with the Yen and the Dollar Index going higher.. Stocks will not weather well as long as the Yen is going higher and that will be continued pressure for more sell off.

Have a great weekend everyone!  Be safe trading this next week, remember never let a winner turn into a loser, take your profits at targets---DONT BE GREEDY and get out of dodge!

-david

Futures Weekly Review and What's Ahead for Next Week!

Hi Everyone,    I hope you've had a good trading week. Lets dive into what's going on in the markets.
We've seen increased volatility to the downside, and with conviction as the volume with the sell offs has been considerable. If you happened to listen to me weeks back or so and bought ZB 30 yr Bond, well congrats you've done quite well with that trade! :)

If you read this last review I was also talking about GC Gold contract going lower from our target @ $1218. If you saw today we are now at around the $1192 level.  Allot will be seen if we can hold this level as support, if it gives way it could get ugly to the downside with Gold going much lower. Be on the lookout!

Lastly, as the NFP numbers came out this morning with jobs up to 248k and unemployment dropping from 6.1 to 5.9 this should have been huge for the markets. The overnite session was already up 60-70pts on the emini Dow and the emini S & P 500 up as well but the initial reaction was just kinda blah! Folks if we don't see a massive up day today like 300pts or more in the Dow and ES 30pts or so it really concerns me that this market may continue to roll over and die.  We've seen the Ebola scare drop the markets over 220 pts in the Dow in one day and if we have another verified case it won't be good but could get quite ugly in the markets.  We have so far seen about a 3% correction but if markets don't rally hard from todays job numbers and resume this massive Uptrend in the indexes I would expect to see up to a 10% correction in the markets.

Please be careful out there, and remember don't let a winning trade turn into a loser! Always have a target set, don't be greedy, hit your target or close to it, take your profits and get the heck out of dodge!


have a great weekend, don't forget to sign-up for my e-mail list for regular updates :)

-david