Weekly Forex Update- The Fiscal Cliff Meltdown

As we seen over the past two weeks with equities selling off like over 300 points on the dow after the USA presidential election.  Yes,  allot had to do with the shock factor of Obama being re-elected and the markets really wanted Romney but allot more had to do with ECB President Mario Draghi saying that the outlook for the European economy is weak, and will not be improving any time soon.  The markets tanked,  and the selling hasn't looked back from that point.

Allot of traders in Forex, Options and even stocks thought we would see some bounce and some solid retracement to test this plunge down but it just hasn't happened.  Even from the beginning of this week markets are not happy about this weeks "Fiscal Cliff" uncertainty and the hope of some bipartisan participation between the House Speaker Boehner and new re-elected president Obama.  And so far what we are seeing isn't looking good for any deal to be made fast, hopefully this will end with something agreeable on both sides to avoid default and also improve markets.

If you've noticed yesterdays market there's been allot of Yen weakness including watching the Aussie sell off for a nice short if you were like me and trading the London Session.   But the better trade was really the buy for the USD/JPY which made a strong push up with allot of volume which is more of a rare thing for this pair.  But in light of how markets have been reacting lately, anything is possible right now.  "Sow bean" futures have been taking money off the table and taking profits before we get close to end of year slow down. And with this much fear and uncertainty about a continued sell off the longs are taking their profits while they still can.

I remain bearish on the markets right now but be very careful in these types of uncertain markets trading.

have a great week----
and for all you traders, "sleep with one eye open!"

-david

Weekly Forex Update-- Let the selling begin!

This week has been on the crazy side with equities significantly selling off with the Dow having its worst day since June will falling over 250 points.  There continues to be fear in the markets with poor earnings and even poorer projections of what to really expect to see in the market as far as growth is concerned.
I would look for some continued downplay with Gold and Stocks especially until things get settled with this election and who the next President of the United States will be.

The Euro made a nice 70 pip push to the downside on Friday but ran out of steam and retraced all the way back up and into more consolidation for over the weekend.   GDP numbers were more encouraging today up to 2.0% instead of the projected 1.9% and allowing the markets a little breathing room.

I'm still looking bearish on the markets right now and believe we will see some continued strength with more Sellers stepping in and the markets falling lower.  Keep an eye out for this, and with options expiring to the downside.

have a great weekend!

-david

8.1% unemployment rate--- Weekly Forex Update

Now that we are finally into September (If you can't tell I love the fall and are craving the cooler temperatures) this week turned out to be a overall good trading week.  We saw some very nice gains for our NFP Friday,  with the EUR/USD moving about 170 pips to the upside.  A very nice trade if you took it.  I was trading options today, with 2 strong wins that I can't complain about.

Now that we are in September and headed into the fall typically Gold starts to make a move and we are seeing it already with Gold closing today at $1735.8 making a solid 2.03% in gains.
Even with a disappointing jobs number at only 96,000 job created with projecting 123,000 NF jobs created the market still took off today in equities and currencies, and bringing a nice close to end the week in US and Asian Markets.

I'm excited about this next week as we should start seeing greater volumes of cash in the markets with traders off holiday and some volatile news coming out this next week with the German Constitutional Court Ruling,  FOMC, Core Retail Sales, 10yr bond auctions and more.

Have a relaxing weekend,

-david




  

Weekly Forex Update- A Slow week in the Forex Markets

Hi Folks,    well what looked like a more of a volatile week ahead, turned out to be more ranging, sideways markets and really a whole lot of nothing.   Our biggest mover of the week was on Wednesday, in the AUD/USD with a late afternoon push to the upside at around 130 pips.
Looks like a Market Maker/Central Bank wanting to get more bang for there buck with a thin market to step in late in the day and push the market up to the 1.05 level.

I'm hoping we see more action this next week with more news in Consumer Confidence, Home Sales, Italian Bond Auction and our #1 manipulator of Markets on Friday,  Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.   Should be a interesting week ahead.

have a relaxing weekend!

-David

Gbp/Usd Weekly Forex Update

Hello everyone,    I hope this week has been a good trading week for you.
Our cable pair made some nice moves starting out on monday with 82 pips and closing tuesday out with 142.4 pips heading down and crossing the 200 SMA but rising quite sharply for a retracement reaching a high of 1.5759.    Into Wednesday the pair held a descending accumulation period until we saw some serious volatility with a sharp move down to 1.5652 and then to reverse up to 1.5778 and then reverse again back down and test the same level again at 1.5652 but never breaking through for the day.

Thursdays break down and continued accumulation into Friday below the 200 SMA encourages some strong indication that we're going to headed lower even with Euro Zone G20 meeting going alright and the markets rebounding to this news.  Also looks like the Fed will be printing more cash and getting ready for QE3 to stimulate the economy and get our unemployment back below 8.2%.

Our 5 day average range about 115 pips which is just below Eur/Usd pair range at 133 pips for the week.


have a relaxing weekend!

Gbp/Usd Weekly Forex Update

Our cable pair has continued its descent down with a nice bounce from the 1.5727 level on Thursday making it a nice short trade working off the 200 SMA.  On Friday, we've seen allot of manipulation from the maker makers pushing the market from the 1.5661 level up to 1.5687 and pushing the market down to 1.5654 to squeeze the market some and ultimately take out the Longs and pick up some cash from the traders.  Than reversing the direction and heading back up to our high point of resistance for the day at 1.5700.

Our real mover for this Friday was Eur/Usd with heading down to 1.2495 for a nice move at 105pips.
With our Gbp/Usd pair only moving 68 pips to its support level at 1.5632.  If we can stay below the 200 Moving Average I believe we're still looking bearish for the Gbp/Usd.  Remember,  this is memorial day weekend, the majority of major banks are closed on Monday and I wouldn't advise any trading as your spreads could be insane.  Lastly,   look to this friday as June 1 and for Non-Farm Payroll news hitting the wire at 8.30 am EST.

 Be safe,  and Have a great holiday weekend!