**ES leading Higher, TF Struggling** Futures Weekly Review and What's Ahead

Hi everyone,  I hope its looking like Spring or maybe a little of Summer in your neck of the woods.
Its been awhile since I've offered my take of where I see we are going in the markets--- so lets dive in for a quick review today!

ES-- S&P 500

After an amazing move on Friday with the NFP jobs report coming out better than expected --We saw a big rally higher, The dow well up over 200 points, emini S&P 500 around 27 points and trucking higher.  Ya it was a great day to be long!

I believe we still may have some room to go higher but I think we could pull back to the mean and sell off some if we can stay below the 21ema and shows some follow through.  Today though,  the market looks to push higher with a bounce but probable run out of steam and move much lower as we are extended and should see some reverting to the mean,


GC-  Gold

I do like Gold a little higher from here, hopefully we can get to push up to the $1191.40 target level, test those highes and regain some strength back down as we get back into our nice trend line moving much lower.


DX-  US Dollar

We've seen allot of weakness in the dollar lately going lower, just ranging around trying to figure out where she is headed.  I believe we will still see a much higher dollar over the year that's why I've been saying stay long the dollar but from here I would look at $95.68 as our next target to push higher.


CL-  Crude

Well lots of volatility in crude,  I know all the news and anaylists are saying we've made a bottom and are going higher for sure...  Yes we may go higher but I've been selling this area off the $60.59 Fire Line to push lower.  We have gone lower as you can see but I see Crude to retrace some back into the $53.00 level before it settles some and consolidates to build new energies higher or lower.
There's lots going on with crude, not to mention the german bund as we saw a massive selloff and some capitulation as some liquidity was drying up and fund managers were getting killed.  Be watching the bunds, bonds, and the notes as we more than likely will see more downside after this hiccup higher soon and then lower as she goes.  Typically,  if bonds are going lower interest rates should go higher so this would be something to watch for if your thinking of getting a new mortgage.


Have a great week trading and watching the markets,  be safe out there.  Always limit and manage your risk!

-david

**ES to head lower, Crude getting Crushed**-- Futures Weekly Review and What's Ahead

Hi Friends,   Its been awhile since I've done a blog post but hey lots is going on in the markets and I thought it was time to chime in and mention a few things about to happen. Let's dive in...


ES-

Looking at the daily chart we are now in this descending channel pattern and unless we see some serious bulls come into play we are headed lower.  We are now below the 8 and 21 ema and its a solid sell signal to load up and go short.  I fully expect lots of volatility this next week
with the FED speaking Wed at this next FMOC meeting.

ZB-

Now that we've sold off pretty hard and flushed out most of the longs, look for the 30 year bond to start working its way higher, targets I like are around the 162'08 level. We should see mortgage rates get back to going lower as we make our way back higher in the notes and bonds.

GC-

Gold should head lower and test the 1141 level.   Probable hang around for a bit, should bounce some from there before it continues pushing through and making lower lows...

DX-

The Dollar is shocking the world and blowing through shorts making lots of folks rich, while the euro is getting killed... I hope you're one of them if you were listening back in December 2014 when I said the trade of the year will be the dollar going higher,  much higher for most of the year.  I hope you're in this one as now the next target will be up to the Voodoo fireline @101.95

CL-

Wow,  crude takes a dive losing 4% this past Friday, and like I've said its going lower folks.  I don't care what media your listening to that says different.  Look for a target of $41.15.  Gas should start to come down some and stay down as we make lower lows and push beyond this $45.00 level that we closed around on Friday.  Enjoy it while it last if your going to do a road trip or do some traveling.

Have a great week----- and---- happy trading!

-david

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**Indexes Could Go Up, Could Go Down-- Bonds Higher--Crude Taking a Bath**- Futures Weekly Review and What's Ahead

Hi Everyone,   I hope your having a nice weekend with your family and friends.  Lots has been going on, and with more ahead.. Lets jump into the charts and have a look..

ES- emini S& P 500-

Well we had a great rally after the ECB announcement this past Thursday, markets were sideways all day on Friday but if you look at the chart below we still are in a weekly up trend but there are mixed signals on the daily chart.

We have had 3 closes below the 21 ema which technically puts us in a downtrend, now I don't know for sure if we'll stay here but also with this symmetrical wedge that has been setting up, the market is coiling to explode either way.  If we do go lower things could get pretty ugly to the downside,  if we break higher, and push through the highs expect to grind higher and continue this long term trend but don't always bank that will happen here.

ZB- 30 yr bond.  

 This trade has been a great trade, now that we've pulled back to the 21 ema I would be another buyer and look to keep rolling higher and interest rates to head lower.

DX- US Dollar.

I hope you've noticed that while the euro and other currencies have gotten hammered the Dollar keeps going Higher, much Higher.  And we still have lots to go, this is a great long term swing trade to be holding onto.

GC- Gold.

If you remember this last update I said Gold very well may take a bounce and boy did we get it,  Really what we are seeing is more of a flight to quality or a hedge if you will to this massive sell off in Crude.  I would expect as more downside continues in Crude to see Gold head up to around the $1330 level before bouncing off this level and going lower. I'm still believing we see Gold much lower but as folks are loosing their shirts with Crude, people are trying to hedge their bets and be safe.

CL- Crude

We are still going lower folks regardless of what BS you've heard or not heard in the media, I'm still looking as a target around the $41 level.  There has been no end to OPEC cutting back, and places like Texas will continue to cap wells and lay off more people as its just too expensive to pull oil out of the ground, and better to wait to see prices return higher.

6S- Swiss Franc.

If you saw this on the 15th, or maybe you saw the media covering it with the Swiss Bank unpegging themselves from there 3 year agreement to the Euro and the Franc taking off over 20% higher. Well what some people don't realize is there were massive margin calls and folks waking up to there little 10 contracts short the Franc to $200,000 in the hole. I saw even large brokers like FXCM who does over 5 billion, (yes that 5 BILLION BUCKS) in trade volume a month get hammered overnite and have to borrow capital to the tune of around $350 million to cover loses from retail investors getting killed with this move.  So be careful out there folks, have stop loses, manage your trades and be smart!

have a great trading week,

-david

**Looking Bearish on Indices, Crude still pulling us down** Futures Weekly Review and What's Ahead

Hi everyone,   I hope you're having a good 2015 so far, the markets have been very volatile lately.  Let's dive into some charts:

ZB--30yr Bond; still moving higher,  what a great trade if you've been hanging on to this one.  I would still be a buyer back to the 21 ema and look to see this baby moving higher...

ES- S&P 500 emini;
Bears look to fight this one out pretty hard, I would really look for whatever way this one breaks out of this wedge.  Its anyone's call this week to see but I believe we could see much more downside if we can break lower...

DX- US Dollar;
Keeps on trending higher, this is one to hold onto at least for the rest of this year but maybe for the next 2 to 3 years possible.  As more pressure is placed on Russia, and the price of crude to be manipulated lower- look to see the Dollar staying strong and going higher!

GC-Gold:

I like Gold a little higher as its breaking out of this channel but then getting rejecting again from this tree line and heading lower,  Gold will go much lower but may take a little break and make some small gains

CL- Crude:   Look to see this train still going lower, allot of folks can't believe it but it is. Until all the buyers get flushed out, and margin called out then we can make a bottom on CL and go higher but there's still plenty buying and I look for a target @ $41.56. Places like Texas will continue to get hit hard with possible a recession, capping wells and laying thousands off as its smarter to leave the oil in the ground and wait for prices to come back. This will continue to have huge implications around the world especially with countries like putting a squeeze on Russia...  With crude about bankrupting their country and loosing half the value of their currency in a week--- Pray we don't push them into a corner and start another 'cold war'!

That's it for now...

Have a great trading week, set targets, take profits and don't be greedy!

-david

**30 yr Bond Continues Higher, Crude Continues to take a Dive**-- Futures Weekly Review and What's Ahead

Hi Everyone,

 I hope you are well, and enjoying all the crazy volatility we've been seeing lately in the markets. Like this past Friday with Crude selling down to $58 barrel and DOW dropping 315 points for the Day.

Lets dive into the Charts and see what's going on: Russell 2000 leading the way drops 14.5 points, with the Nasdaq, and S & P 500 following behind.

Allot of this sell off we've been witnessing this week is a direct result of what's happening with Crude selling off. Even the TF Russell has early in the morning would push higher this disbelief with crude going lower is really pulling the Financials down and waning heavily.

If you've been steady reader you know how I've been very bullish on the 30 yr Bond, We are now approaching the highes of 148 and at 146' 20/32 we look to test the highes at least and possible push through.

Its been interesting watching GC our Gold Futures Contract selloff but then have a pretty good retracement bounce back up to the Green Tree Line @ $1223 level. I don't expect it stay in a upward move very long, price should get rejected from this Tree Line and continue its coarse much, much lower like I've already said before.  Watch out for allot of manipulation and volatility in Gold though by the market makers,and HFT to try and push the short sellers out, hit their stops, grab that liquidity in the market and then drop the market much lower...

Look for the Dollar to continue from this level much higher, as you can see on this chart I'm taking some profits off the table at this next Fire Line @$89.650. This is great intial target to take some profits off and let this baby roll on...

As far as the indices are concerned and if your wondering are we going higher from here?  I would say it looks very good,  we do have a big Fed meeting this Wed, 17th as the official FOMC statement will be coming out and will see a wild ride but if you look at this chart below we are not even at a 50% retracement level yet.  So if there is some more downside below this 38.2 level into the 50% LEVEL, I would expect some very aggressive buying and honestly I look to see the markets rebound pretty good this week all the way into Christmas and into the New Year.  Look for continued gas prices to Fall, I fully expect we see $2/gallon here in January.

Stay safe out there shopping, Christmas is right around the corner now :)

Happy Trading,

-david

**Bonds and Indexes Going Higher**--Futures Weekly Review and What's Ahead

Hi everyone,   It's been awhile that I've updated you, I have been traveling, to chasing my kids and just everyday life has been busy and I now have some time to write an update on the markets.

Well lets dive in and look at some charts first with the ES.

The S&P 500 has been pretty choppy lately but still grinding higher after it broke a major fire line at around the 2055 level. The Russel TF has still leading strong with typically more of the breakout either up or down when we some movement but I'm still game to see this market higher and the Bulls running the show.



30 yr Bond ZB Contract

The 30 year bond is still on track to move higher with probably seeing mortgage rates continue peel off lower as typically this inversely related pair with the indexes refuses to cooperate and will go higher.  I'm saying much higher.  We are coming into a very interesting time in the world and the markets when all time highs will continually be achieved on the bonds and the indexes.

Gold GC

This brings me to Gold,  yes we've as of lately seen a bounce and allot of the volatility is highly manipulated to run everyone's stops and flush the market where there is liquidity but I will say it again Gold is going lower much lower! This is only the beginning,  I will not even consider being a buyer of Gold till it gets down to around the $800 level.  And that my friends is where this commodity is headed.

USD DX

Lastly,  before I sign off watch the dollar folks...  Us traders are looking for major moves in the dollar to keep going higher.  This will have major ramifications globally that I will continue to talk about more in future updates closer to the end of this year, but nonetheless look to buy this next dip back into this trendline around the 86.5 level and hang on to go much higher.  We have lots to talk about with this friends,  the markets are just heating up with the dollar.

Have a very Happy 2014 Thanksgiving!  we have so much everyday to be thankful for...

Please don't let a day go by without thanking God to be alive and all the many blessings we have.

Cheers,

-david

"Major Volatility with Bulls Pushing Market Higher"-- Futures Weekly Review and What's Ahead

Well what a crazy week where we are down with Ebola, up with the Fed, and all over the map with huge moves up and down.  I hope its been a good week for you trading. Lets jump into the charts and have a look at what's going on and what's to come.

The emini S&P 500 had a great day today up around 14.5 pts, emini Dow up around 131 pts with bulls really coming in strong!  Today was really a line in the sand day to see if this rally is for real or we where going to roll over and die.  Like I said we saw the 10% correction but I was really hoping to see a 20% correction.  The Put/Call ratio was over 1 showing more puts or people selling to indicate the inverse that the market looked to go higher and sure enough that's what we got.  So I think we will see more hiccups with Ebola outbreak in New York and more downside but I was wrong about seeing more downside with the Bulls winning this out and continuing a 3 year rally to go higher.  You can see from the daily chart below we where right at the 50 day moving average, as well as the 61.8 retracement -- so this was really a do or die kind of day to see who was going to win.

ZB 30yr bond has been a great trade to the upside and with this current pullback to the 21 ema I would say this ride looks to continue higher and the buck the inversely correlated trend with the indices to keep moving up.  We will see for sure but it looks real strong to move up and test some of the crazy highs we've seen, which will be good targets to take some profits.  Its nice though as bonds move up typically interest rates move down and this helps the economy specifically housing with mortgage rates going down.  Not to mention Crude pushing through the $80 level has been huge for the drop in gasoline prices and looks to head lower. Here's the 30yr bond below:

Here's Gold GC chart,  I would look for more downside with support coming in at the 1218 level, probably bounce some but if we can push through I would expect to test the lows of around 1191.

Markets are very volatile out there so be careful, take profits and get out. **Heads Up for Wed, 29th as FOMC Statement** from the Fed will be out at 2pm EST.

Have a great weekend everyone!

-david

**Markets Continue to Sell Off**-- Futures Weekly Review and What's Ahead

Hi everyone,   well what a week!

If you recall my last post I said to be careful in the indexes as things may get pretty ugly to the downside.  And with our FOMC Pop higher on Wednesday and massive over 330pts in Dow sell off Thursday and another 30+ plus points down in the S & P 500 today and leading NQ over 100pts lower--  we are definitely seeing the move down.  Its typical to see selling into next friday, Oct 17th Options Expiration but I still believe we are going to see at least a 10% correction possible more! So even though we've been in a Bull market for the last three years it looks like we a forming a head and shoulders pattern, probably will get some bounce after expiration to form the right shoulder a little more and down we go.   And yes with this Trend change the Russel has been leading it and with today the Nasdaq leading with strong selling.  and here's the emini S & P 500 from todays move 31 pts down for the day!

ZBZ4 30 yr bond has been just trucking along higher with the correlations looking strong to go higher if  your still in this trade like I talked about.  Next target will be about a full point, almost 32 ticks from here to the 142'08 level.

GCZ4 Gold contract has been bouncing nicely off this support level around $1190ish level,  I would expect more money into gold too as a hedge with the markets being volatile and should see gold continue moving higher to possible around the $1245ish area before it will crap out and start heading much lower and be on its continued journey to around the $1000 level.

There has also been a flight to quality with the Yen and the Dollar Index going higher.. Stocks will not weather well as long as the Yen is going higher and that will be continued pressure for more sell off.

Have a great weekend everyone!  Be safe trading this next week, remember never let a winner turn into a loser, take your profits at targets---DONT BE GREEDY and get out of dodge!

-david

Futures Weekly Review and What's Ahead for Next Week!

Hi Everyone,    I hope you've had a good trading week. Lets dive into what's going on in the markets.
We've seen increased volatility to the downside, and with conviction as the volume with the sell offs has been considerable. If you happened to listen to me weeks back or so and bought ZB 30 yr Bond, well congrats you've done quite well with that trade! :)

If you read this last review I was also talking about GC Gold contract going lower from our target @ $1218. If you saw today we are now at around the $1192 level.  Allot will be seen if we can hold this level as support, if it gives way it could get ugly to the downside with Gold going much lower. Be on the lookout!

Lastly, as the NFP numbers came out this morning with jobs up to 248k and unemployment dropping from 6.1 to 5.9 this should have been huge for the markets. The overnite session was already up 60-70pts on the emini Dow and the emini S & P 500 up as well but the initial reaction was just kinda blah! Folks if we don't see a massive up day today like 300pts or more in the Dow and ES 30pts or so it really concerns me that this market may continue to roll over and die.  We've seen the Ebola scare drop the markets over 220 pts in the Dow in one day and if we have another verified case it won't be good but could get quite ugly in the markets.  We have so far seen about a 3% correction but if markets don't rally hard from todays job numbers and resume this massive Uptrend in the indexes I would expect to see up to a 10% correction in the markets.

Please be careful out there, and remember don't let a winning trade turn into a loser! Always have a target set, don't be greedy, hit your target or close to it, take your profits and get the heck out of dodge!


have a great weekend, don't forget to sign-up for my e-mail list for regular updates :)

-david

Futures Weekly Review and Whats Ahead

Hi everyone,

  I hope you've had a great trading week. I've been out of town some with the family enjoying friends in Gatlinburg, TN. Well FOMC is behind us with the Fed printing more money and keeping interest rates low for awhile and Fridays Options Expiration chop is over. So here we are in the indices sitting at all time highs in the S & P and I believe we are going higher. Look to buy pull backs at the 21 EMA-- Don't know if you bought any shares of Alibaba today but what a ride from $68/share, all the way up to $98, $99/share with today's move!  GC Gold hit targets at 1218 level but looks to go lower.  I'm hoping to see some recovery with ZB 30 yr Bond moving back higher after this steep move down. So be careful in bonds right now and lets wait for some good setups, never chase'em!

have a relaxing weekend!

-david

Futures Weekly Review and What's Ahead for Next Week

Well this week we saw fridays NFP numbers come in with a lower jobs number but unemployment dropping to 6.1% and the markets rallied with that info to move higher. The ES closed on Friday at a all time high of 2006.00 and continues to look strong.

This next week I'm expecting more volume and liquidity in the markets as more traders are back trading and ready to roll no pun intended on Sept 11th to the December contract. I still believe the treasuries will move higher as the ZB 30 yr Bond looks to head higher after this pull back into 138"22.  GC gold contract looks to head a little lower before there should be some buyers and greater support found at around the 1200 level before pushing a little higher.

This next week is a lighter on the news coming out but that doesn't mean less volatility as we should start seeing some nice moves as we head into the Fall.

Happy Trading,

-david

Grinding Higher-- ES Close Above 2000 @2001.25

Well finally we are at the end of August, I'm happy to get back into some more normal trading than allot of this low volume more like slop and chop lately.  The Bonds and Notes continue to go higher and really if your able to this would be one great swing trade or really long term trade that I would hold to possible the end of the year. Yes,  we are getting up there in the 30 year to pushing all time highs but we still have more room to go higher. So enjoy the ride! :)

I'm looking for the NQ to stay strong and keep leading in strength the indices, as the ES, TF and the YM continue to move higher. Now from a intraday basis for you day traders I'm looking for next week to be kinda of a slow week again before things really start picking up with the volume once into the 2nd week of September.

**Also,  take note that indices will be rolling over to there front month contracts so watch the volume  if your holding onto some last minute positions and lets roll over as we trade into next week**

Have a Great Labor Day Weekend!

-david

S & P 500 Breaks 2000--- Looks to grind higher along with the Bonds and the Notes

Kinda of a choppy day today if you were trading it but nonetheless the bulls were leading and breaking the 2000 level closing just below it back into consolidation. Now that we are getting out of August I expect to see more volume return to the markets and start seeing allot more activity now that the doldrums of summer are about over. Hello Fall baby!  goodbye Summer... :)

Have a great week everyone,  will talk to you soon!

-david

ES, YM, and NQ Set to Go Higher, Bonds may take a break

The markets are moving this morning with the Dow up 160 points last I looked, the majority of the gains where in the overnight futures session as the market gaped up pretty big from Sundays open at 4pm EST.

Personally, I believe this rally is still intact, the bears are and will be getting squeezed which means more short covering and should push this market higher.  Fed Chairmen Janet Yellen will be speaking Friday, but the Fed even with pulling back their bond purchases is not going to allow all this monetary stimulation they've been doing to so easily allow the bears to destroy all the confidence in more money flowing into to stocks. This goes hand in hand with Japans inflation missions to see the Yen continue to flood the markets driving the Yen lower and stocks much higher.

** also take notice that FMOC is this Wed, 2pm EST. So close your positions and wait for the news to come out I would suggest **

happy trading,

-david

The Dow due for a bounce and Bonds looking to head lower

Also,   be on the lookout for this Wed as its FOMC coming out that afternoon at I believe 2pm est.  The Dow is at a great place to buy on the dip as we expect to see price test highs to push even higher.  Have a great trading week!


-david

Dow makes new high today, ready to go higher!

Hi everyone,    the Dow keeps moving on up regardless of every quack on CNBC or media channel saying different, and the talking heads can't seem to figure it out why this is happening...  Mainly the markets are being driver solely by the Fed and their influx of printing or monetary easing and even our good ol' boy Ben Benerake has admitted this will propel stocks and indices higher.

And we are heading up higher so I would consider looking for dips to buy and position yourself for more longs in the market.

have a great week,

-david

Are we Up or are we Down? The Dow takes a Pause...

The Dow closed up on Friday, but not by much,  kinda puts us in a moment of pause as we wait this week to see are we still going to rally to new highs or are the shorts finally coming in hard to drive the market lower?   I think its anyones guess right now, but I believe this week will see for sure what's the final ruling.

I'm looking for Gold to head lower,  the dollar to continue and head higher as with equities.
Look for some retracement in bonds but the majority of the move I believe is still looking downward.
The Dow looks to hit some resistance opening on Tuesday but if it can break through its off to the races with it moving higher, bonds typically moving lower.

Have a great trading week,  and be careful out there!

-david

Dow to go Higher, Bonds to Drop Lower

Hi everyone,   I know its been awhile since I last updated the blog but wanted to add some thoughts on what I see happening in the market.  We've been on a constant rally with the Dow, and after witnessing Gold sell off about 300 points in 3 days it goes to show you the markets are never dull right?   I hope you were able to catch some of Golds historic move to the downside and that you pocketed some nice cash.. :)

Today I want to highlight that it looks like the Dow is going to continue higher and break its high and continuing moving higher.   But the trade to watch and is something I trade myself is to short the 30 year T-bond as this typical correlated instrument will usually be inverted to whatever the Dow is doing.   So for myself instead of chasing the Dow I believe its a better trade to short the Bonds, with a tight stop at 5 ticks and open target (but no more than 32 ticks as the baby will more than likely reverse outside of 32 ticks)
Watch for a bid up,  and/or sell off some support or a pull back to catch more of the downside move if you like.

Also,   be aware this Friday is Non-farm Payroll and looks to be a pretty volatile day.  So be careful out there trading!  

Have a great week,

-david

Zecco trading finalizes morph into Trade King

Hi guys,   If your a Zecco fan like I've been over the years login to your account and activate your account with Trade King and you'll be all set.  Zecco has been a great place to trade, and save some cash on trades too, but I believe this merger with TK will be even better!  And will create more stability and capital for the long haul.  So update your accounts or if your new to TK click the banner upper right on the website and sign-up!

have a great one,  and talk soon :)

-david

Weekly Forex Update- The Fiscal Cliff Meltdown

As we seen over the past two weeks with equities selling off like over 300 points on the dow after the USA presidential election.  Yes,  allot had to do with the shock factor of Obama being re-elected and the markets really wanted Romney but allot more had to do with ECB President Mario Draghi saying that the outlook for the European economy is weak, and will not be improving any time soon.  The markets tanked,  and the selling hasn't looked back from that point.

Allot of traders in Forex, Options and even stocks thought we would see some bounce and some solid retracement to test this plunge down but it just hasn't happened.  Even from the beginning of this week markets are not happy about this weeks "Fiscal Cliff" uncertainty and the hope of some bipartisan participation between the House Speaker Boehner and new re-elected president Obama.  And so far what we are seeing isn't looking good for any deal to be made fast, hopefully this will end with something agreeable on both sides to avoid default and also improve markets.

If you've noticed yesterdays market there's been allot of Yen weakness including watching the Aussie sell off for a nice short if you were like me and trading the London Session.   But the better trade was really the buy for the USD/JPY which made a strong push up with allot of volume which is more of a rare thing for this pair.  But in light of how markets have been reacting lately, anything is possible right now.  "Sow bean" futures have been taking money off the table and taking profits before we get close to end of year slow down. And with this much fear and uncertainty about a continued sell off the longs are taking their profits while they still can.

I remain bearish on the markets right now but be very careful in these types of uncertain markets trading.

have a great week----
and for all you traders, "sleep with one eye open!"

-david