Its been awhile since I've offered my take of where I see we are going in the markets--- so lets dive in for a quick review today!
ES-- S&P 500
After an amazing move on Friday with the NFP jobs report coming out better than expected --We saw a big rally higher, The dow well up over 200 points, emini S&P 500 around 27 points and trucking higher. Ya it was a great day to be long!
I believe we still may have some room to go higher but I think we could pull back to the mean and sell off some if we can stay below the 21ema and shows some follow through. Today though, the market looks to push higher with a bounce but probable run out of steam and move much lower as we are extended and should see some reverting to the mean,
GC- Gold
I do like Gold a little higher from here, hopefully we can get to push up to the $1191.40 target level, test those highes and regain some strength back down as we get back into our nice trend line moving much lower.
DX- US Dollar
We've seen allot of weakness in the dollar lately going lower, just ranging around trying to figure out where she is headed. I believe we will still see a much higher dollar over the year that's why I've been saying stay long the dollar but from here I would look at $95.68 as our next target to push higher.
CL- Crude
Well lots of volatility in crude, I know all the news and anaylists are saying we've made a bottom and are going higher for sure... Yes we may go higher but I've been selling this area off the $60.59 Fire Line to push lower. We have gone lower as you can see but I see Crude to retrace some back into the $53.00 level before it settles some and consolidates to build new energies higher or lower.
There's lots going on with crude, not to mention the german bund as we saw a massive selloff and some capitulation as some liquidity was drying up and fund managers were getting killed. Be watching the bunds, bonds, and the notes as we more than likely will see more downside after this hiccup higher soon and then lower as she goes. Typically, if bonds are going lower interest rates should go higher so this would be something to watch for if your thinking of getting a new mortgage.
Have a great week trading and watching the markets, be safe out there. Always limit and manage your risk!
-david
